BEST PICTURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Amour
Django Unchained
Argo
Of the nine nominees, I've seen three. That's pathetic. What's even more pathetic is that of the six that I've missed, I really am only interested in seeing half of them. I'm hopeful I can get to Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, and Beasts of the Southern Wild before the awards, but will absolutely see them all at some point. On the flip side, I have no desire to see Amour, Django Unchained, or Zero Dark Thirty at all, no matter how much of a critical or audience smash any of them is.
Given all that, me judging what can and should win would be something of a crap shoot. Argo won the Golden Globe. I don't think Les Miserables was anywhere near good enough to win on merit, but doubt it has any chance against the Lincoln juggernaut, anyway. That movie was genetically spawned in a lab devoted to research about How To Win Oscars.
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
This is more like it. I have seen or probably will see all five of these movies at some point. As far as handicapping the winner, it seems fairly certain that Daniel Day-Lewis will win, but there's usually at least one upset per ceremony, so who knows what category it will occur in?
BEST ACTRESS
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Erm. I haven't seen a single one of these movies yet. Jennifer Lawrence won the Golden Globe, but so did Jessica Chastain, and dramas tend to perform better at the Oscars than anything with comedic content. Beyond that, I don't see what I can contribute.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
As I have yet to get to The Master or Silver Linings Playbook (and will likely never see Django Unchained), it's tough to predict this one. Alan Arkin was great in Argo, but it was a small role, and frankly, I thought John Goodman was more engaging than him. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, but he's also already won an Oscar for a Quentin Tarantino movie, and I sort of doubt it'll happen again so soon. I could easily be wrong, but I'm going to guess that the more staid and aged members of the Academy will swing this one for Tommy Lee Jones.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Amy Adams, (The Master)
I have to admit that I don't understand the general acclaim that Sally Field enjoys. I don't dislike her, and I don't think she's a bad actress, but I can't remember the last time she displayed any range, and Lincoln was no exception. She was basically Forrest Gump's mom with a hoop skirt. I have yet to see the latter three movies, so I can't really comment on who is going to win, but I can say that although I'm finding Les Miserables extremely over-recognized this year, Anne Hathaway was remarkably good in it. Her performance adds up to a scant fifteen minutes or so, but she manages to be the emotional center of the whole damned thing.
BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
A list most notable for its snubs (Ben Affleck, Quentin Tarantino), it seems unlikely that anyone can beat Steven Spielberg.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Flight
Wes Anderson has been ignored in every other category, so this may be the one chance for the very-deserving Moonrise Kingdom to score a win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
On the one hand, the screenplay category is one of the few that Lincoln could be vulnerable. On the other hand, Tony Kushner is getting all sorts of raves for his work on that movie. So in short, this is going to be one of the harder ones to call.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frankenweenie
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
ParaNorman
Brave
Well, let's see. If the votes go for which film was actually the best of the year, then Wreck-It Ralph would win (with a possible outside spoiler of ParaNorman). If voters look at this list and think "Oh, there's a Pixar movie on it. Guess I should vote for that," then Brave will win. Guess which scenario is more likely?
BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
Amour
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki
No
War Witch
Amour. Surest best of the night. Next question, please.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Skyfall
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Arrrgh! I have issues even picking out the front-runner here. All five have been thoroughly lauded in this category. Django Unchained seems the unlikeliest winner, but I wouldn't feel safe making any sort of prediction for this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Show White and the Huntsman
I was speaking with an honest-to-goodness costume designer who was bemoaning the fact that period pieces always win this prize, because it's actually much more of a challenge to design for contemporary characters than ones from a bygone era where all the rules about how to dress are essentially set in amber forever. That has nothing to do about who's actually going to win, but I thought she had a good point. As far as who will win, it'll probably be Les Miserables, though I don't think there was anything too special about those costumes.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
I'm told that if there is any justice in the world, Anna Karenina should have this sewn up. Having not seen it yet, I can't say if that's true or not. Still, it seems like if it wins in any category, it'll be this one.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Searching for Sugar Man
How to Survive a Plague
The Gatekeepers
5 Broken Cameras
The Invisible War
I've heard some glowing reviews of Searching for Sugar Man, but How to Survive a Plague and The Invisible War are about far more grim, depressing topics, and those always seem to snatch this award. I'm not a fan of that precedent, but I can't ignore it.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Open Heart
Inocente
Redemption
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
I'll defer to whatever Entertainment Weekly predicts about this one.
BEST FILM EDITING
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
I've never been good at guessing who will win this category, but usually, whatever film seems like the overall Big Movie of the Year is a safe guess, so let's say Lincoln. Zero Dark Thirty has the potential to sneak in on this one, though.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Hmm. This one is a toughie. I think we can safely discount Snow White and the Huntsman, but could envision any of the other four winning. If forced to make a guess right now, I'd say it'll probably come down to a close battle between Life of Pi and Prometheus.
BEST MAKEUP
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Hobbits or making poor French people look horrible? It could go either way!
BEST SCORE
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
I haven't heard Life of Pi or Anna Karenina, so it would be difficult to judge this one. The Skyfall score was great, though.
BEST SONG
"Before My Time" (Chasing Ice)
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" (Ted)
"Pi's Lullaby" (Life of Pi)
"Skyfall" (Skyfall)
"Suddenly" (Les Miserables)
This was always going to come down to Adele vs. the original song from Les Miserables, and "Suddenly" never managed to make much of a splash, so I'm thinking "Skyfall", all the way.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'
Paperman
The only one I've seen is Paperman, which was charming, though I don't know if it was charming enough to win. I'll leave the guessing on this one to more informed prognosticators.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Henry
I haven't seen any of them yet. I read a lot of Oscar discussion, though, so I should soon be able to at least see where other people think the votes are going.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST SOUND MIXING
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
I don't know who's going to win either of these categories, and neither do you. Let's chat about it on the twelfth of never, shall we?
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