Shorties #22

Spring has sprung, and that means spring cleaning! Not only does the apartment need some tidying, but the Netflix queue needs a good pruning as well. I've been able to catch up on a few of the things that have been clogging my lists, which means it's the perfect time to fire off another Shorties entry.

#1: Under the Skin: Once in a while, I'll take note of a movie, but intentionally let it pass me by, since it doesn't sound like it would be to my tastes. But then, it'll keep getting talked up by people whose opinions I trust, so I'll circle back around and give it a shot. Such was the case with this 2013 sci-fi movie, which stars Scarlett Johansson as a predatory alien. You definitely have to be in the mood for such a quiet, thoughtful movie about the nature of attraction, violence, and empathy, and luckily, it struck me just right. It's very difficult to make an art film that functions as a genre film (and vice versa), and Under the Skin pulls it off. (Grade: A-)

#2: Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping: This is another movie I let slip by until I couldn't ignore its critical praise anymore. I used to have little use for Andy Samberg, but then I became a huge fan of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, so I decided to give this Lonely Island movie a fair shot. And once again, I'm glad I did! This 2016 send-up of Behind the Music style documentaries follows superstar Conner4Real from his days in a mega-popular boy band to his implosion as a solo artist. Comedies are an automatic success when they make me belly laugh several times, so there you go. Both the songs and script are reliably funny, and there are tons of great cameos from celebrities who are totally game to make fun of the culture surrounding stardom. (Grade: B+)

#3: The Lobster: I have a long track record of preferring movies that attempt something interesting. Even if it fails, I like to see something that approaches the story in a refreshing way. That's definitely the case with the 2015 movie The Lobster, which takes place in a universe where single people are rounded up and forced to forge some sort of monogamous commitment. If they can't do so successfully, they are turned into the animal of their choice. Colin Farrell plays David, who is sent to a hotel to find a mate, and we follow his attempts to do so, followed by additional obstacles when he leaves. People have asked me if I liked this movie, and I always respond with a few moments of silence, followed by: "I'm glad I watched it". I don't know that I can say I enjoyed it, per se, but I'm still thinking about it long after I watched it, and there aren't many movies I can say that about. (Grade: B)

#4: Stay Up With Me: Short story collections are a favorite of mine, so when one gets positively reviewed somewhere, I'll usually make an effort to grab a copy from the library. The most recent collection I read was Tom Barbash's 2013 book, Stay Up With Me. Back when I talked about Single, Carefree, Mellow, I praised the stories for kind of being about nothing; they simply explored the inner lives of their protagonists. It turns out there's an art to observational stories where nothing major happens, because this book takes the same approach, but less successfully in my estimation. If there's a unifying theme, it's the fragility of human relationships, and the stories do a lot of ruminating on broken marriages, tense family bonds, and crumbling professional connections. I do want to single out "Letters from the Academy", which was a great story, and somehow creepy and relatable simultaneously. Overall, though, these stories were as melancholy as George Saunders', but not as engaging. (Grade: B-)

#5: Muppets Most Wanted: As a child of the '80s, how could I not be a Muppets fan? By the same token, as a child of the '80s, how could any modern Muppets movie possibly stack up to the classics? Short answer: They can't. Still, I took this 2014 movie for a spin, and was reasonably satisfied. I did like the story, in which the Muppet gang that just reunited in 2011's The Muppets are talked into going on a world tour so that their manager and Kermit's evil doppelganger Constantine can rob nearby museums. The cameos are fun, and the musical numbers are as jolly as ever. It's just that they'll never be able to recapture the magic of The Great Muppet Caper (Grade: B)

The Lion Kings

As I mentioned in my post about Season 1 of Voltron: Legendary Defender, I never watched the original '80s show that the reboot is based on. Turns out that's a good thing, because as a special treat to go with Season 2, they re-released some of the old episodes. I watched one, and wow. That original show was...not good. What the hell was Pidge's voice actor trying to accomplish?

Happily, the new Voltron showrunners have a more thoughtful approach, and Season 2 built on Season 1 in really interesting ways. It would be easy to just have our heroes thwart the evil Zarkon's scheme-of-the-week, then retreat to safety, but this sophomore season does something a lot more daring: The paladins take the fight directly to the Galra. Each episode fits into a larger arc that explores the greater plan for a long-lasting solution to keeping the universe safe, while reserving plenty of time to be goofy.

The interpersonal relationships are more developed this season, too, as Allura must face some uncomfortable truths about the people she's allied with, and Keith strives to learn more about his mysterious past. Shiro fights to stay connected with his lion, Pidge makes some progress in tracking down her missing family members, and even Hunk gets a chance to shine with some newly-discovered lion powers, as well as impressing a demanding chef in the season's best episode, "Space Mall".

Honestly, I never thought I'd wind up enjoying Voltron, since I have no nostalgia about the original to tie it to. I just agreed to watch it with some friends as a lark. It's been such a nice surprise to not only find that I like the show quite a bit, but that it's clearly improving as it goes along.

Voltron: Legendary Defender - Season 2: B+

Girl Interrupted

What's the appeal of cults? Why do people drop off the grid to go live in a hovel led by someone who has delusions of grandeur or godhood? What drives people to willfully overlook obvious danger to themselves or others? These questions are all tackled by a book that got a lot of critical praise last year, Emma Cline's 2016 novel, The Girls.

As an adult, Evie Boyd is a fairly isolated woman, who helps look after others rather than living any real life of her own. Some teenagers who barge into the guest house where she's staying recognize that she was part of a cult way back in the '60s, and are curious to know what that was like. The bulk of the book is Evie stirring up all those memories, trying to make sense of her involvement.

Evie had a fairly standard childhood, though her parents are pretty emotionally neglectful. Her dad runs off to start a new life with another woman, and her mom takes solace in hippie nonsense. Evie finds emotional support in Suzanne, a girl she finds endlessly cool and intriguing. Suzanne takes Evie back to a compound where a group of girls scrounge off the land while obeying every whim of Russell, the charismatic leader.

Evie is thrilled to find a place where she's accepted, and gets drawn into the group's charm, rationalizing all of the red flags that begin to pop up with increasing regularity. The cult is soon hurtling towards actions far more alarming than dumpster diving, and Evie is called upon to make serious choices about her loyalty.

People seemed to really love this book when it came out, but it left me a bit cold. I can definitely give credit to Cline for weaving a world of believable decay; I could almost feel the gross conditions of the cult's compound and everyone living there on my skin. She also did a good job in making Evie's journey from standard suburban teenager to cult member understandable. That said, Evie's obsession with Suzanne is somewhat contrived, and Cline's prose tends to be a little too in love with similes and metaphors.

The Girls is one of those books that was definitely worth the read, and if asked, I'd certainly recommend it to certain friends, but is beloved to a degree I don't understand. This is where I'd attempt a joke about cults if I felt more strongly about the book. As it is, it's a pretty good read that may not deserve its reputation, but still has a lot to offer.

The Girls: B

Tri Tri Again

Back when I was talking about the first season of Angie Tribeca, I mentioned that as a cord-cutter, I'd have to bide my time before being able to watch the second one. Well, guess what just dropped on Hulu? Some television shows demand to be watched slowly, the better to really soak up the themes and nuances of each episode. Angie Tribeca is emphatically not one of those shows, and I binged the whole season in the course of a few evenings.

There really isn't much to "review" in shows like these. If you liked the complete zaniness and absurdity of season one, then you're all set. The puns, the visual gags, and the ridiculous situations are all back in full force, and each episode is good for a least a giggle or two, if not a full-throated belly laugh.

One new aspect is the inclusion of an actual seasonal arc, which you wouldn't expect in a show that basically functions as a simple joke delivery system. In season 2, Angie awakens from a coma to discover that Geils is now in a relationship with Dr. Scholls, and complications ensue, especially when her previously-thought-dead partner resurfaces as the head of a shadowy organization.

It all sounds very Alias, until something like a full-sized office desk built out of sand or Tanner in geisha regalia shows up. Season 2 didn't grab me by the funny bone as much as the inaugural season did, but this show's embrace of complete silliness works in its favor, and though it's no doubt a long way off, I'm already looking forward to being able to stream season three.

Angie Tribeca - Season 2: B

Past Imperfect, Future Tense

It's comforting to know that with all the problems plaguing our current society, things have always sucked, and always will. Wait, maybe that's not so comforting to you. But to me, it does relieve the mind a little to know that no matter what point on the timeline of human dominance I was destined to be born in, there was always going to be some sort of obstacle, so it's silly to pine for another era.

This was borne out in a pair of books I just finished, both of which revolved around a war waged to free citizens from tyrannical rulers. However, one was a non-fiction exploration of particular aspects of the American Revolutionary War, and one was the fictional conclusion of a series of futuristic outer space colony wars.

The first was Sarah Vowell's 2015 jaunt through history, Lafayette in the Somewhat United States. Students are often given pretty dry information regarding the War of Independence. They learn the names, the dates, the battles. The events were given some nice color (literally) in the Hamilton musical, but that was written more to entertain than to educate. This book strikes a nice balance between the two; as with all of Vowell's books, it adopts a light, humorous tone, but imparts actual information about the Frenchman who devoted his life to securing the freedom of a country across the ocean. What was he like as a person? Why fight for America when France had plenty of its own problems?

I really like it when history is approached in this way. It's still factual information, but the conversational delivery makes it a lot more pleasant to engage with than simple recitation of the where and when. I got a real sense of Lafayette and other 1770s figures as actual humans, rather than just as symbols or names on a park statue. Though it wasn't my favorite of Vowell's works (that'd probably be Assassination Vacation), this book is still a really fun read, and would make a good assignment in a high school history class.

The other book was Pierce Brown's 2016 sci-fi thriller, Morning Star, the final entry of the Darrow trilogy that kicked off with Mars Rising, and continued in Golden Son. I don't believe I've ever said this about any other trilogy before: The second book was actually the strongest.

In this final book, Darrow has been exposed as a Red operative, and he must gather his allies for one last stand against the Gold oppressors. There are some thrilling sequences, but there is also a lot of ticking of boxes to wrap up all the loose ends. Brown is very good at giving this universe a sense of scale (casualties are often counted in the millions, rather than the thousands), but by the same token, the story tends to suffer from the same problem that plagues Game of Thrones: What I call the Paper Doll Syndrome. If life if so cheap as to throw a bunch of them away on every page, how am I meant to get invested enough to care?

Though I sound less than enthusiastic, I did enjoy the series, and can see myself re-reading it someday, which is rare for a trilogy. Darrow is an engaging protagonist with relatable worries about being "the chosen one". His internal struggles are a hell of a lot more realistic than other books I could name. The battle scenes are legitimately thrilling, to the point that I could sometimes feel my heart rate increase.

A movie series is reportedly in development, and if it's done correctly, I can see it working pretty well. With some minor tweaks, this series could have easily been one of my favorite sci-fi works. As it is, it's still pretty good, and though you wouldn't use that as a pull quote on the jacket flap, it's high enough praise to put this above 85% of the other sci-fi I've read.

Lafayette in the Somewhat United States: B+
Morning Star: B

(I)'ll Fly Away

Back in the late '90s/early '00s, I was all in for Pedro Almodóvar movies. I had just caught up with his 1988 movie, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, and when I saw All About My Mother and Talk to Her, I knew this was a director to watch.

And then I stopped watching, and I have no idea why. Almodóvar simply dropped off my radar. In looking around for semi-obscure titles to continue the ABC Project, I stumbled across his 2013 movie, I'm So Excited!, which seemed like it would make a perfect entry. Would the affinity I had for his movies a decade ago still hold? Would his work have appreciably changed with the passing of so much time?

What I got was one of the wackiest damned movies I've seen in a long time, and which could have easily been irritating and obnoxious in the hands of a less-skilled director. Instead, he manages to make something quirky and charming out of this story of a plane diverted for mechanical problems and whose first class cabin is occupied by: A dominatrix convinced there is a giant political conspiracy against her, a semi-psychic virgin, a financier likely going to jail for massive corruption, an actor trying to iron out past romantic relationships over the phone, a guy smuggling drugs in his ass, a hitman, and three flamingly gay flight attendants who between bouts of lip synching and getting the passengers drunk, make sure to stop in the cockpit to get caught up on the situation and give the pilots a quick blowjob.

Oh, and did I mention that everyone in coach has been drugged and is put to sleep for the entire flight? Yep, that's this movie. But like I said, despite the complete craziness of the plot, somehow it all works without going completely off the rails.

Even with all of the performances and the story being ramped up to eleven, Almodóvar creates characters that you actually become invested in. This may be one of those strange movies that I enjoy myself, but would have real reservations about recommending to others. If you like your movies to follow a certain standard template, maybe stay away from this one. But if, like me, you want your movies to go completely bonkers once in a while, then definitely give this one a shot.

I'm So Excited!: B+


When the first season of Crazy Ex-Girlfriend came along, it was such a delightful surprise. It didn't get great ratings, but it was such a critical darling that the CW made the wise and easy decision to renew it. Rachel Bloom mentioned that with every new season, the underlying theme would be different, and this idea has been brilliantly supported by writing an entirely new theme song. The title of this post is how every episode of season 2 kicks off, and it made me giggle every damn time.

If season one was about denial, then season two has been about pure, unadulterated obsession. Now that Josh knows about Rebecca's deep, all-consuming crush on him, she'll do anything in her power to get him into her clutches. Or will she? Because every time he pulls away, she starts thinking that maybe she'd be better off with Greg, after all. As with season one, Rebecca may be the protagonist of the story, but it would be a stretch to call her the heroine. She has good intentions, but her egocentrism and excessive enthusiasm about whatever her current scheme is always threatens to destroy any relationship she's built.

Season 2 wasn't as innovative and genius as season 1, but it definitely had a lot of bright spots. Rebecca has always been pretty selfish in her friendship with Paula, and a fight between them was due. Digging a bit into Rebecca's past to unravel why she is the way she is was an interesting plotline to explore. And the show even found a way to re-incorporate Valencia in a pretty cool way. Aside from that, though, the story beats of season 2 were kind of a disappointment.

And what about the music? The songs of Season 1 were infectious bits of wonder; I still find myself singing "I Have Friends" in the shower to myself. While the songs of season 2 were all pretty good, only a couple reach the heights that the inaugural season did. I really enjoy "The Math of Love Triangles", but the absolute pinnacle was Rebecca's view of how East Coast Jews view life: "Remember That We Suffered".

I have relatives exactly like this, and this song is a perfect encapsulation of their attitudes. So while Season 2 has a bit of a sophomore slump, this show is still really engaging, and is unlike anything else on the air right now. They've already been renewed for season 3, which looks like it's going to have an even darker tone, and I am all in for it. Because if all this wackiness is what ensues when Rebecca has a sunny disposition, imaging what she's going to wreak when she's out for blood.

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend - Season 2: B

The Rewatch: Friends - Season 6

Certain shows, like The Golden Girls, are timeless. Sure, there are some dated references, but for the most part, the jokes and situations are just as relevant today as they were when the show was airing. One thing I've been noticing about this Rewatch, though, is as time goes on, and television gets better and better, Friends is beginning to fossilize. You wouldn't think a simple sitcom about a group of people hanging out would age rapidly, but the tone, writing, and plotlines of Friends are looking more archaic with every passing season.

That's not to say that it's a bad show now; it's just very of-the-moment in a way that I didn't expect. The '90s technology, the continued reliance on gay panic jokes, Bruce Willis with hair... All of these make the show look older than it really is. Season 6 did have a few welcome changes, though. I mentioned in the Season 5 post that Friends is weakest when it focuses too heavily on the romances within the group. While there is still certainly plenty of that going on, this season definitely has a better balance of non-romance episodes, in which they get back to the silly friend interactions that made the show so successful in the first place.

However, as shows goes on, characters tend to calcify into extreme versions of their biggest personality traits, and that is definitely beginning to occur here. For the most part, everyone still acts like actual human beings, but Season 6 is when you can start charting things like Monica turning from organized neat-freak into compulsive, anal-retentive shrew, or Ross from clumsy-at-relationships to full-on psychotic liar. When the comedic situations turn from things like "This lady is messy!" to "I'm going to keep my marriage a secret from the bride herself!" you know things are getting too wacky, too fast.

The first and last batch of episodes of the season focuses on the shifting romantic relationships between Ross/Rachel (attempted annulment, eventual divorce) and Monica/Chandler (moving in together, marriage proposal), but in the middle, there are some real gems. As I said in Season 5, Friends really shines in their Thanksgiving episodes, and Season 6 is no exception. There's also a fun two-parter in an alternate universe in which Monica is still fat, Joey is still a soap star, Ross is still married to Carol, and so on.

This is also the season in which Ross is a professor, and has an affair with one of his students (Elizabeth). That may have worked as a one-off episode, but Elizabeth sticks around for several episodes, and is far too boring a character to justify the time spent on her. Ditto for Joey's temporary roommate Janine. Guest stars apparently work best on this show when their appearances are brief. The episodes that really work best are the ones that stick to the core cast, and just let their personalities bounce off of each other.

Notable Guest Stars: As mentioned above, there's Alexandra Holden as Elizabeth and Elle Macpherson as Janine, neither of whom should have gotten as much screen time as they did, the former because her character doesn't have enough personality, and the latter because... let's just say her range is limited. Bruce Willis also shows up as Elizabeth's father, and is similarly over-used. There are some good flashing guest appearances, though, from Reese Witherspoon as Rachel's sister Jill to the always-wonderful Missi Pyle as one of Ross' ill-fated dates. The usual recurring folks (Elliot Gould, Christina Pickles, Tom Selleck, Maggie Wheeler, etc.) are also back, and they're always a welcome presence.

What's Keeping Ross and Rachel And Their Apparently Greatest Love in the History of the Earth Apart This Time: After the drunken wedding in Vegas, there are several episodes devoted to its dissolution. Ross trying to keep their marriage going in secret is one of the dumbest things ever written for this show, but I can't deny that there are also some genuinely funny aspects to this most recent split. After the divorce is final, they're able to get back to a state of platonic friendship, which is nice to see, though I'm aware that it won't last.

Best Episode: This one's easy. "TOW Ross Got High" is the season's Thanksgiving episode, and it is just wonderful. Between Rachel's disastrous trifle and the Ross/Monica exchange where they hysterically expose each other's secrets to their parents, this episode fires on all cylinders from beginning to end.

Worst Episode: A trio of the Elizabeth/Paul episodes ("TOW Ross Dates a Student", "TOW Ross Meets Elizabeth's Dad", and "TOW Paul's the Man") could certainly vie for this dubious honor on account of how dull they are, but the worst episode of the season shouldn't just be the absence of good. There should be something actively bad involved. That's why, despite the involvement of Missie Pyle and Joanna Gleason, I have to go with "TOW Ross' Teeth", which may as well be called "TOW Dudes Should Loudly Proclaim Their Heterosexuality at Every Opportunity". Joey is mad because the woman who pays him rent is making their apartment too girly. Ross is ridiculed for putting on makeup. For fuck's sake, '50s educational shorts didn't have this much pressure to hide your personality quirks in order to conform.

In looking at the season as a whole, I'm conflicted. There are definite bright spots, but the show also appears to be taking a turn. It's tough to identify, but we may be approaching the point of the proverbial shark jump. The big arcs of the show are moving forward, but as it progresses, it's becoming more about the characters' love lives than any joy in spending time together. In short, Friends isn't about friends anymore. Will Season 7 continue this trend? There's only one way to find out. Onward!

The Sun'll Come Out, Tomorrow

Orphans! They're just like us! Well, except for the fact that they're completely different. The psychological scars of the typical nuclear family are wholly different than the ones inflicted on the parent-less, which means that orphans sure do make for good storytelling. So much so that by happenstance, I just watched two wildly different titles that revolve around orphans and how they begin to rebuild a sense of family.

The first was the inaugural season of the Netflix adaptation of Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events. I really liked all the books, but the original movie was not particularly great. It was inoffensive enough, but the only thing that really stood out were the end credits. That didn't prevent me from getting my hopes up when this new version rolled around, for a few reasons:

Neil Patrick Harris was attached as Count Olaf, which is terrific casting. Daniel Handler (that is, Lemony Snicket himself) was in charge of the writing. Barry Sonnenfeld, who gave us such gorgeous visuals in Pushing Daisies was giving this show a similar look. That, plus the fact that putting this property on TV gave it move time and space to breathe than a single movie, had me anticipating this show more than any other.

Was it worth the attention? Affirmative, a word which here means "of course it was". All of the points I just mentioned paid off in spades, and there were so many more. The show really captures the tone of the books, and the producers are obviously having grand fun with casting the guest stars, from Joan Cusack as Justice Strauss to Alfre Woodard as Aunt Josephine. Neil Patrick Harris is able to walk the fine line between making Olaf a farcical figure of fun and an actual menace. His troupe of ne'er-do-well henchmen are just on the right side of goofy. Patrick Warburton is perfect as the melancholy, stone-faced narrator. And the Baudelaire orphans themselves? They're fine, if not that noteworthy. The children may be determined, but they're fairly reactive characters, so I don't blame the actors if they're somewhat placid; they're the sad calm in the midst of a hurricane of wacky adults.

Each book gets two episodes, so it's basically one movie per book, with the season covering the first four. Despite the horrors the Baudelaires are forced to endure, it was a joyous viewing experience, and I'm already looking forward to the next installment.

Up next was an orphan of a different stripe. It's that moody caped crusader, Batman himself. And although he's as grim and dour as ever, his surroundings are pretty bright and cheery. That's right, it's The LEGO Batman Movie. And speaking of casts that are stacked with talent, just check out this one. Everyone loaned their voice to this movie!

It's incredible how many different rights the producers of the LEGO movies have to lock down, but they somehow manage. Though Batman (Will Arnett) is the nominal star, there are appearances from characters from all sorts of other realms, from Lord of the Rings to Harry Potter. Batman is used to working alone, but between the Joker's new evil plan, a forceful Barbara Gorden as police commissioner, and an eager sidekick trying to get adopted, he has to learn to rely on others.

The story arc is fairly straightforward, but given that this is a LEGO movie, it's really more about the rapid-fire jokes and references. They all landed well, giving me a lot of good chuckles. The movie isn't as clever or inventive as the original one, but it was still a lot of fun, and kids will love it.

A Series of Unfortunate Events - Season 1: A-
The LEGO Batman Movie: B

Oscar Nominations 2017

Another year, another apology for not being a better, more refined movie-goer this past year. I always get something out of the Oscars (though I can't be the only one dreading the inevitable parade of politically-tinged acceptance speeches this year), but I used to approach them with a lot more background knowledge. Now I'm just more of an observer, which is somewhat disappointing.

But that's what I get for having such an embarrassing, sub-par year of movie-watching habits. If nothing else, the Oscar nominations are always a good highlight of films to put on my Eventual To-Watch List When I Trip Over a Wheelbarrow Full of Free Time. It's also very refreshing to see some melanin this year; there's been so much bad news lately, it's nice that noteworthy performances/craftsmanship by minorities is getting a ton of recognition. Okay, enough chatter. Let's look at the list.


Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea

Oh, look. Here's the perfect example of my inability to catch the culturally-important movies of the year, because I've seen precisely two of these. Fortunately, one of them is the odds-on favorite to win. La La Land has a record-tying number of nominations, and will likely capture Best Picture without breaking a sweat. I would like to get to Moonlight soon, and would certainly be willing to catch up with most of the others at some point, too. Except Hacksaw Ridge. Hard pass on that one.


Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling, (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen, (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Though La La Land is expected to dominate most of the evening, I believe the Casey Affleck is the favorite to win this one. I just need to be in the right headspace to watch a movie as apparently depressing as Manchester by the Sea, and I'm not there yet. I'm pretty curious about Captain Fantastic, too. Though I'm certainly not against melodramatic plays being adapted into movies, I've still got some residual disappointment from August: Osage County, so Fences is hovering at the bottom of the to-watch list, currently. I've heard great things about Denzel Washington both behind and in front of the camera on this one, though.


Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Listen, I love Meryl Streep as much as the next guy. She's a national treasure. That doesn't mean she's required by law to be nominated for every performance she gives. She didn't deserve it for August: Osage County, she sure as hell didn't deserve it for Into the Woods, and by all accounts, her nomination slot for this year's awards should have gone to Amy Adams for Arrival. That said, I can't decide if I think Emma Stone or Natalie Portman is going to win. I do love Isabelle Huppert, but I don't think enough people have seen Elle to cement her win. Negga is getting heavy praise, but Loving has been pretty much ignored otherwise. If forced to guess, I think Emma Stone will snag her first win on a tidal wave of Hollywood love for La La Land, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.


Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Though I mentioned at the top of the post that it was great to see some diversity in the nominees, you'll notice I haven't predicted any minority winners yet. The supporting acting categories are where I think that will change. Mahershala Ali is just everywhere this year, and any article about Moonlight goes out of its way to single out his performance. It would be pretty awesome to see him get this win.


Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

And while I'm handing out awards to performances I haven't seen yet, it's high time that Viola Davis got an Oscar. This is her third nomination, and I believe it's also going to finally be her year to win. Her closest competition is probably Michelle Williams, but I think Davis has more momentum.


Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Well, now. A couple of very interesting things to discuss here. Firstly, there's the horse race between Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins. La La Land has so much steam right now, it's hard to imagine anyone but Chazelle winning. That said, Moonlight blew a lot of people away, and the temptation to give a deserved award to an African-American director for the first time in history will be incredibly strong. I honestly don't know which way it'll go. There's also the inclusion of Mel Gibson on this list. Is he now re-accepted to Hollywood society? Who decided that, and when? I certainly didn't put my stamp of approval on it.


Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou (The Lobster)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Oof. This is the toughest one to predict so far. I would love to see The Lobster win, but there are a lot of other forces at work, here. There's the La La Land nomination juggernaut, even though its screenplay has no business being nominated. There's the fact that Manchester by the Sea might not get much attention in other categories, so people may throw their votes for it here. And then there's Hell or High Water, which also has a decent chance.


Eric Heisserer (Arrival)
August Wilson (Fences)
Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Luke Davies (Lion)
Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight)

Several good choices here, too. If Barry Jenkins doesn't win director, he could still garner votes in this category. Arrival depended heavily on its screenplay, and it was masterfully done. I'm not sure how common posthumous awards are, but despite August Wilson's obvious talent, I doubt he'll be able to secure this win from the grave. And Hidden Figures is unlikely to win much come Oscar night, but if it does, it'd probably be in this category.


Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle

Oh, dear. This is the first time in a while that Pixar isn't up for anything, and I really loved both Kubo and the Two Strings and Moana. Kubo really didn't get much attention while it was out, so I suppose I'd predict Moana based on pure word-of-mouth, and if I'm being honest, I probably did like it a bit more.


A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Tanna (Australia)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

I don't know much about the foreign language field this year, other than the shockingly shameful situation that our current political climate has imposed on the Iranian director, Asghar Farhadi. Given that he also made A Separation, I wouldn't be surprised if he won.


La La Land

Yeah, La La Land has this one sewn up.


Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land

There's no really grand, sweeping period piece like Anna Karenina this year to draw all the attention. That probably means that the bright, colorful costumes of La La Land will get most people's votes.


Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land

Aw, it's nice to see Hail, Caesar! represented. I don't think it can overcome the La La Land onslaught, but it would be a fun twist if it won. Arrival would have a better chance in a different year, but I have the feeling that it may go home empty-handed, unless it's able to grab the screenplay award.


Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America

This category has generated a lot more chatter than usual. Both 13th and I Am Not Your Negro have been getting a ton of press for their thoughtful deconstruction of the frustrating state of race relations. Life, Animated is an interesting look at using Disney movies to cope with life's challenges. And O.J.: Made in America was universally praised, but is controversial in that it's really more of a TV show than a movie. Despite that argument, it appears to have a slight edge on winning.


4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Even in a normal year, I'd be woefully unprepared to discuss this category. This year is even worse, because even with all the reading I do about movies and the numerous movie podcasts I listen to, I haven't heard boo about a single one of these. So, pick your favorite! That one's gonna win.


Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land

This will likely go to La La Land, though I'd be tickled pink if Moonlight gets it. Editing a movie with time jumps takes a lot of detailed work.


Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Ooh, this would be a fantastic way of throwing a bone to Rogue One. That movie had some excellent effects, though Kubo's effects were marvelous, too. If either one of those two wins, I'll walk away happy.


A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Yikes, this is the best list they could come up with? I can't believe they couldn't either pad this out with other movies or find some worthy replacements. As it stands, I don't care one bit who wins this one.


La La Land

La La Land seems like a lock for this one, honestly. I may be overestimating how much awards love that movie will get, but its score seems like one of its safer bets.


“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” (Trolls)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“The Empty Chair” (Jim: The James Foley Story)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)

OK, this is where I'm supposed to predict that obviously, the musical that's favored to win Best Picture is going to win for Best Original Song, too. There are just two little flies in the ointment. First, there are two songs up from La La Land, which means that they may split the vote. Second, if Moana wins (and frankly, it should), it puts Lin Manuel Miranda that much closer to an EGOT, which people really want to see happen. La La Land is poised to win so many other awards, I feel myself grasping onto tiny glimmer of hope that "How Far I'll Go" can emerge victorious.


Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes

The only one I've seen or have heard about is Piper, which was very cute, and had the best water effects I think I've ever seen.


Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights

I'm afraid that as in the documentary short category, I know nothing about any of these. So let's throw a dart at the wall. Timecode it is!


Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land

I have it on good authority that the winner this year is a sound clip of me yelling about how this should be part of the untelevised technical awards, because nobody gives a good goddamn.


Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Which goes double for sound mixing.
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