But that's what I get for having such an embarrassing, sub-par year of movie-watching habits. If nothing else, the Oscar nominations are always a good highlight of films to put on my Eventual To-Watch List When I Trip Over a Wheelbarrow Full of Free Time. It's also very refreshing to see some melanin this year; there's been so much bad news lately, it's nice that noteworthy performances/craftsmanship by minorities is getting a ton of recognition. Okay, enough chatter. Let's look at the list.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Oh, look. Here's the perfect example of my inability to catch the culturally-important movies of the year, because I've seen precisely two of these. Fortunately, one of them is the odds-on favorite to win. La La Land has a record-tying number of nominations, and will likely capture Best Picture without breaking a sweat. I would like to get to Moonlight soon, and would certainly be willing to catch up with most of the others at some point, too. Except Hacksaw Ridge. Hard pass on that one.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling, (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen, (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Though La La Land is expected to dominate most of the evening, I believe the Casey Affleck is the favorite to win this one. I just need to be in the right headspace to watch a movie as apparently depressing as Manchester by the Sea, and I'm not there yet. I'm pretty curious about Captain Fantastic, too. Though I'm certainly not against melodramatic plays being adapted into movies, I've still got some residual disappointment from August: Osage County, so Fences is hovering at the bottom of the to-watch list, currently. I've heard great things about Denzel Washington both behind and in front of the camera on this one, though.
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Listen, I love Meryl Streep as much as the next guy. She's a national treasure. That doesn't mean she's required by law to be nominated for every performance she gives. She didn't deserve it for August: Osage County, she sure as hell didn't deserve it for Into the Woods, and by all accounts, her nomination slot for this year's awards should have gone to Amy Adams for Arrival. That said, I can't decide if I think Emma Stone or Natalie Portman is going to win. I do love Isabelle Huppert, but I don't think enough people have seen Elle to cement her win. Negga is getting heavy praise, but Loving has been pretty much ignored otherwise. If forced to guess, I think Emma Stone will snag her first win on a tidal wave of Hollywood love for La La Land, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Though I mentioned at the top of the post that it was great to see some diversity in the nominees, you'll notice I haven't predicted any minority winners yet. The supporting acting categories are where I think that will change. Mahershala Ali is just everywhere this year, and any article about Moonlight goes out of its way to single out his performance. It would be pretty awesome to see him get this win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
And while I'm handing out awards to performances I haven't seen yet, it's high time that Viola Davis got an Oscar. This is her third nomination, and I believe it's also going to finally be her year to win. Her closest competition is probably Michelle Williams, but I think Davis has more momentum.
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Well, now. A couple of very interesting things to discuss here. Firstly, there's the horse race between Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins. La La Land has so much steam right now, it's hard to imagine anyone but Chazelle winning. That said, Moonlight blew a lot of people away, and the temptation to give a deserved award to an African-American director for the first time in history will be incredibly strong. I honestly don't know which way it'll go. There's also the inclusion of Mel Gibson on this list. Is he now re-accepted to Hollywood society? Who decided that, and when? I certainly didn't put my stamp of approval on it.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou (The Lobster)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Oof. This is the toughest one to predict so far. I would love to see The Lobster win, but there are a lot of other forces at work, here. There's the La La Land nomination juggernaut, even though its screenplay has no business being nominated. There's the fact that Manchester by the Sea might not get much attention in other categories, so people may throw their votes for it here. And then there's Hell or High Water, which also has a decent chance.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Heisserer (Arrival)
August Wilson (Fences)
Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Luke Davies (Lion)
Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight)
Several good choices here, too. If Barry Jenkins doesn't win director, he could still garner votes in this category. Arrival depended heavily on its screenplay, and it was masterfully done. I'm not sure how common posthumous awards are, but despite August Wilson's obvious talent, I doubt he'll be able to secure this win from the grave. And Hidden Figures is unlikely to win much come Oscar night, but if it does, it'd probably be in this category.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Oh, dear. This is the first time in a while that Pixar isn't up for anything, and I really loved both Kubo and the Two Strings and Moana. Kubo really didn't get much attention while it was out, so I suppose I'd predict Moana based on pure word-of-mouth, and if I'm being honest, I probably did like it a bit more.
BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Tanna (Australia)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
I don't know much about the foreign language field this year, other than the shockingly shameful situation that our current political climate has imposed on the Iranian director, Asghar Farhadi. Given that he also made A Separation, I wouldn't be surprised if he won.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Yeah, La La Land has this one sewn up.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
There's no really grand, sweeping period piece like Anna Karenina this year to draw all the attention. That probably means that the bright, colorful costumes of La La Land will get most people's votes.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Aw, it's nice to see Hail, Caesar! represented. I don't think it can overcome the La La Land onslaught, but it would be a fun twist if it won. Arrival would have a better chance in a different year, but I have the feeling that it may go home empty-handed, unless it's able to grab the screenplay award.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
This category has generated a lot more chatter than usual. Both 13th and I Am Not Your Negro have been getting a ton of press for their thoughtful deconstruction of the frustrating state of race relations. Life, Animated is an interesting look at using Disney movies to cope with life's challenges. And O.J.: Made in America was universally praised, but is controversial in that it's really more of a TV show than a movie. Despite that argument, it appears to have a slight edge on winning.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
4.1 Miles
Extremis
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Even in a normal year, I'd be woefully unprepared to discuss this category. This year is even worse, because even with all the reading I do about movies and the numerous movie podcasts I listen to, I haven't heard boo about a single one of these. So, pick your favorite! That one's gonna win.
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
This will likely go to La La Land, though I'd be tickled pink if Moonlight gets it. Editing a movie with time jumps takes a lot of detailed work.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Ooh, this would be a fantastic way of throwing a bone to Rogue One. That movie had some excellent effects, though Kubo's effects were marvelous, too. If either one of those two wins, I'll walk away happy.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Yikes, this is the best list they could come up with? I can't believe they couldn't either pad this out with other movies or find some worthy replacements. As it stands, I don't care one bit who wins this one.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
La La Land seems like a lock for this one, honestly. I may be overestimating how much awards love that movie will get, but its score seems like one of its safer bets.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” (Trolls)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“The Empty Chair” (Jim: The James Foley Story)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
OK, this is where I'm supposed to predict that obviously, the musical that's favored to win Best Picture is going to win for Best Original Song, too. There are just two little flies in the ointment. First, there are two songs up from La La Land, which means that they may split the vote. Second, if Moana wins (and frankly, it should), it puts Lin Manuel Miranda that much closer to an EGOT, which people really want to see happen. La La Land is poised to win so many other awards, I feel myself grasping onto tiny glimmer of hope that "How Far I'll Go" can emerge victorious.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
The only one I've seen or have heard about is Piper, which was very cute, and had the best water effects I think I've ever seen.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
I'm afraid that as in the documentary short category, I know nothing about any of these. So let's throw a dart at the wall. Timecode it is!
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
I have it on good authority that the winner this year is a sound clip of me yelling about how this should be part of the untelevised technical awards, because nobody gives a good goddamn.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Which goes double for sound mixing.
0 comments:
Post a Comment